Down Today, Up Tommorow??

Negative cues from overseas in the Asian region and the weak sentiments when it comes to Banks and Tech should drive the market down today. The main drivers should be the Banking and Tech stocks. Expect BSE to be volleying in the 16,500 to 16,600 range mostly with a negative bias, ending the day in the 16,500 region and possibly below it. The NSE should trade near the 5,000 mark mostly with a small chance to break below the level and settle near 4,990. In case it defies so, expect it to still make it just above 5,000. But overall, I expect a positive march up for the markets this week. Fingers Crossed.

On a roll

The Asian markets seems are on a roll now ( 7 week high) and should brush the Indian stock market positively too. Expect the Tech and Bank stocks to take the market up. BSE at 17,000 now suddenly looks very convincing. Expect the 16,900 mark to be scaled here. Like wise, NSE at 5,100 is also on the cards, though expect the NSE to trade mostly in the 5,040 to 5,085 range for the day. Have a rosy Monday fellas......

Up Today

Expect the BSE to move in a range of 16,400 to 16,700 today with an upward bias. The NSE should do well in staying near the 4,950 area, though nibbling at 5,000 briefly is a possibility. The cues from US and Asia are very positive and point towards a steady rally up in the days to come. Seems like my expectation of the BSE doing sub 14,000 is not likely so soon. But you never know.....The next negative cue may take the markets down again.

Backfire

The Indian market is one that will time and again do things that will make you sit up and take notice. It will do it off and on. Won't take any cues from happenings elsewhere and chart its own course. And that's what it did yesterday. Did not even respond to the 2 day deceleration on the Dow. And shoved aside the record 7.41% inflation figures too......now that's interesting. Instead took cues from the Asian markets and the robust results of Infosys. That Infosys news was the correct thing to follow, I think there needs to be some correction to reflect the global weak sentiments. The negatives of last friday though local to US ( not so great results for GE), should have given a negative sentiment signal globally too. That we are majorly dependent on the US not only on the trade side, but also when it comes to political influence, Resources, Currency pairing, et al, not forgetting the growing oil bill, thanks to the rising oil prices, should have made us adjust/align to the happenings in the US to some extent. But we went hay wire. Started in the red and shot up quickly to end the day on a high. And possibly I am not the only one who saw their opinion being rebuffed by the market.

The Idea for today?? Should continue the up swing and be in the above 16,300 level (BSE) and 4900 (NSE) for the day. Will wait and watch for now.

Ouch.....its pinching everywhere!

Since I wrote last, there has been a nervous slowdown in the markets all over with the Dow itself going down by a whopping 257 points in one day last friday. This was followed up by a nervous show by most markets yesterday. The Dow itself, when it opened yesterday after the weekend, was unsure of its next move. It went up a little initially, only to settle back in the red just by a trickle, suggesting the nervous uncertainity in the market and the wariness for further bad news if any, to come. The Bank stocks were patircularily down a few notches. they have been so in fact throughout this past week. The main contributors for their bad show would have to be put on not only the sentiments that the market is carrying, but also due to some reasons that have come to stay in the last year or so.....credit squeeze, High cost of funds, dwindling spreads....Not a healthy picture at all. That valuations have come down drastically in the past year is of grave concern. Ouch.....its pinching everywhere!

Coming to the Indian markets, even though it showed a positive swing on friday, expect it to go down today in the light of the Dow meltdown, although not by much. The major Asian markets are up today after a dull day yesterday and it should rub off on us. The net effect thus should be in the range of a downslide in the range of 150-300 points. The market should be seeing the levels in the range of 15,500 during the day before settling down near the 15,650 mark. This, provided the European markets are in the same near neutral gear as the Dow was yesterday. Else the 15,200 mark may also not be a safe bet today.

Eventually.....I stick to my 13,400-13,800 levels to be reached in the coming months although the 14,000 might be a tough psychological barrier to break.

Prologue

While lots has been written on the Indian stock market by a lot of people, I invite myself into the ring too. I had written a few weeks ago on another blog (you can access it on http://forexpredictionstoday.blogspot.com/2008/03/quite-in-line-with-what-was-being-said.html) that the BSE had a bottom near the 14,800 to 15,200 mark (and also on the 12,000 mark nearing breakage on the Dow Jones). And was I correct!!!!!!. It bottomed at 14,803 before reserructing itself by a few hundred points. My new prediction on the BSE..... Wait for a while, maybe tommorow. It should be testing the 15,200 mark again. And in weeks to come, with the turmoil in the world economies....it may even break the bottom I predicted and go on to the 13,400 to 13,800 levels. The Dow on the other hand should take things more maturely before giving way below the 12000 mark again. Its a great psychological barrier you see. And we Indians are a "freakish" (rather than nervous if I may say so) lot when it comes to things tumbling down. You may have witnessed it in the past three months.

Though I had heard/read a few days back of the market moving to 11,000 , in my inimitable style (pun intended dear folks.....on me of course...who else????), I would say it is too premature to predict so, though not dismissing off altogether, given the shaky place the world has come to be.

Now, to test my skills further, I am trying to write this blog. You are also invited to access my take on the forex markets and more at http://forexpredictionstoday.blogspot.com/ . Hope to see you all there too. Chao.